A Financing Strategy to Expand Surgical Health Care.

Despite an evolving need to provide surgical health care globally, few health systems, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), can sufficiently provide such care. The vast majority of the world's people-an estimated 5 billion-are unable to access safe and affordable surgical health care when they need it. This is a significant concern for global public health because the demand for these services is rising with the epidemiological and demographic transitions occurring worldwide. A principal driver of weak surgical health care services is a lack of adequate health system financing for surgical health care. This article examines the financing of surgical health care by analyzing global trends in health system financing, approaches to expand fiscal space for health, and empirical perspectives on the design, introduction, and scale-up of policies to improve surgical systems. We describe a surgical health care financing strategy, together with broader political and economic considerations, to provide policy recommendations to fund the expansion of surgical health care and an essential surgical package as part of universal health coverage in LMICs.

Estimating the total incidence of type 1 diabetes in children and adolescents aged 0-19 years from 1990 to 2050: a global simulation-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies of type 1 diabetes in childhood and adolescence have found large variations in reported incidence around the world. However, it is unclear whether these reported incidence levels are impacted by differences in country health systems and possible underdiagnosis and if so, to what degree. The aim of this study was to estimate both the total and diagnosed incidence of type 1 diabetes globally and to project childhood type 1 diabetes incidence indicators from 1990 to 2050 for each country. METHODS: We developed the type 1 diabetes global microsimulation model to simulate the natural history and diagnosis of type 1 diabetes for children and adolescents (aged 0-19 years) in 200 countries and territories, accounting for variability in underlying incidence and health system performance. The model follows an open population of children and adolescents in monthly intervals and simulates type 1 diabetes incidence and progression, as well as health system factors which influence diagnosis. We calibrated the model to published data on type 1 diabetes incidence, autoantibody profiles, and proportion of cases diagnosed with diabetic ketoacidosis from 1990 to 2020 and assessed the predictive accuracy using a randomly sampled test set of data withheld from calibration. FINDINGS: We estimate that in 2021 there were 355 900 (95% UI 334 200-377 300) total new cases of type 1 diabetes globally among children and adolescents, of which 56% (200 400 cases, 95% UI 180 600-219 500) were diagnosed. Estimated underdiagnosis varies substantially by region, with over 95% of new cases diagnosed in Australia and New Zealand, western and northern Europe, and North America, but less than 35% of new cases diagnosed in west Africa, south and southeastern Asia, and Melanesia. The total number of incident childhood cases of type 1 diabetes is projected to increase to 476 700 (95% UI 449 500-504 300) in 2050. INTERPRETATION: Our research indicates that the total global incidence of childhood and adolescent type 1 diabetes is larger than previously estimated, with nearly one-in-two children currently undiagnosed. Policymakers should plan for adequate diagnostic and medical capacity to improve timely type 1 diabetes detection and treatment, particularly as incidence is projected to increase worldwide, with highest numbers of new cases in Africa. FUNDING: Novo Nordisk.

The Prevalence of Islet Autoantibodies in Children and Adolescents With Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus: A Global Scoping Review.

Background and Purpose: Pancreatic islet autoantibodies (iAb) are the hallmark of autoimmunity in type 1 diabetes. A more comprehensive understanding of the global iAb prevalence could help reduce avertible morbidity and mortality among children and adolescents and contribute to the understanding in the observed differences in the incidence, prevalence and health outcomes of children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes across and within countries. We present the first scoping review that provides a global synthesis of the prevalence of iAb in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes. Research Design and Methods: We searched Ovid MEDLINE® with Daily Update, Embase (Elsevier, embase.com) and PubMed (National Library of Medicine -NCBI), for studies pertaining to prevalence in children and adolescents (0-19) with type 1 diabetes published between 1 Jan 1990 and 18 June 2021. Results were synthesized using Covidence systematic review software and meta-analysis was completed using R v3·6·1. Two reviewers independently screened abstracts with a third reviewer resolving conflicts (k= 0·92). Results: The review revealed 125 studies from 48 different countries, with 92 from high-income countries. Globally, in new-onset type 1 diabetes, IA-2A was the most prevalent iAb 0·714 [95% CI (0·71, 0·72)], followed by ICA 0·681 [95% CI (0·67, 0·69)], ZnT8A was 0·654 [95% CI (0·64, 0·66)], GADA 0·636 [95% CI (0·63, 0·66)] and then IAA 0·424 [95% CI (0·42, 0·43)], with substantial variation across world regions. The weighted mean prevalence of IA-2A was more variable, highest in Europe at 0·749 [95% CI (0·74, 0·76)] followed by Northern America 0·662 [95% CI (0·64, 0·69)], Latin America and the Caribbean 0·632 [95% CI (0·54, 0·72)], Oceania 0·603 [95% CI (0·54, 0·67)], Asia 0·466 [95% CI (0·44, 0·50)] and Africa 0·311 [95% CI (0·23, 0·40)]. In established cases of type 1 diabetes, GADA was the most prevalent iAb 0·407 [95% CI (0·39, 0·42)] followed by ZnT8A 0·322 [95% CI (0·29, 0·36)], IA-2A 0·302 [95% CI (0·29, 0·32)], IAA 0·258 [95% CI (0·24, 0·26)] and ICA 0·145 [95% CI (0·13, 0·16)], again with substantial variation across world regions. Conclusion: Understanding the global prevalence of iAb in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes could help with earlier identification of those at-risk of developing type 1 diabetes and inform clinical practice, health policies, resource allocation, and targeted healthcare interventions to better screen, diagnose and manage children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes.

Incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes and diabetic ketoacidosis in children and adolescents (0-19 years) in Thailand (2015-2020): A nationwide population-based study.

BACKGROUND: There is a lack of published studies on incidence of type 1 diabetes (T1D) and diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) in Thailand. We aimed to estimate the national prevalence and incidence of T1D and DKA. METHODS: Using Thailand's nationwide population-based longitudinal data covering 69 million individuals, we included the entire children and adolescents recorded in the database. Diseases were identified using ICD-10 codes. We investigated the prevalence of T1D and cumulative incidence of T1D, T1D referral, DKA, and mortality risk of DKA in five years from 2015 to 2020. T1D and DKA annual incidence were also estimated. We present findings for the total population and by sex, age, and urban-rural residencies. FINDINGS: A total of 19,784,781 individuals aged less than 20 years were identified in 2015. The crude T1D prevalence in 2015 was 17·6 per 100,000 and crude T1D incidence rate was 5·0 per 100,000. T1D prevalence and cumulative incidence were significantly higher in older children (p < 0·001) and females (p < 0·001) than their counterparts. Among those with T1D, cumulative incidence of T1D referral was 42·4%. It was highest amongst children aged 5-14 years and was significantly higher among females (all p < 0·05). The crude DKA incidence rate at any point after diagnosis was 10·8%. The cumulative incidence of DKA was significantly higher in females and peaked in individuals aged 5-14 years (all p < 0·001). The DKA mortality risk was 258·2 per 100,000. INTERPRETATION: Older children and females had higher T1D prevalence. The DKA cumulative incidence and mortality risk were relatively low, and such incidence was peak in individuals aged 5-14 years. FUNDING: Harvard University.

Variation in the incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus in children and adolescents by world region and country income group: A scoping review.

INTRODUCTION: Around 18.7 million of the 537 million people with diabetes worldwide live in low-income and middle-income countries (LMIC), where there is also an increase in the number of children, adolescents, and young adults diagnosed with type 1 diabetes (T1D). There are substantial gaps in data in the current understanding of the epidemiological patterns and trends in incidence rates of T1D at the global level. METHODS: We performed a scoping review of published studies that established the incidence of T1D in children, adolescents, and young adults aged 0-25 years at national and sub-national levels using PubMed, Embase and Global Health. Data was analyzed using R programming. RESULTS: The scoping review identified 237 studies which included T1D incidence estimates from 92 countries, revealing substantial variability in the annual incidence of T1D by age, geographic region, and country-income classification. Highest rates were reported in the 5-9 and 10-14 year age groups than in the 0-4 and 15-19 year age groups, respectively. In the 0-14 year age group, the highest incidence was reported in Northern Europe (23.96 per 100,000), Australia/New Zealand (22.8 per 100,000), and Northern America (18.02 per 100,000), while the lowest was observed in Melanesia, Western Africa, and South America (all < 1 per 100,000). For the 0-19 year age group, the highest incidence was reported in Northern Europe (39.0 per 100,000), Northern America (20.07 per 100,000), and Northern Africa (10.1 per 100,000), while the lowest was observed in Eastern and Western Africa (< 2 per 100,000). Higher incidence rates were observed in high-income countries compared to LMICs. There was a paucity of published studies focusing on determining the incidence of T1D in LMICs. CONCLUSION: The review reveals substantial variability in incidence rates of T1D by geographic region, country income group, and age. There is a dearth of information on T1D in LMICs, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where incidence remains largely unknown. Investment in population-based registries and longitudinal cohort studies could help improve the current understanding of the epidemiological trends and help inform health policy, resource allocation, and targeted interventions to enhance access to effective, efficient, equitable, and responsive healthcare services.

Identifying knowledge needed to improve surgical care in Southern Africa using a theory of change approach.

Surgical healthcare has been prioritised in the Southern African Development Community (SADC), a regional intergovernmental entity promoting equitable and sustainable economic growth and socioeconomic development. However, challenges remain in translating political prioritisation into effective and equitable surgical healthcare. The AfroSurg Collaborative (AfroSurg) includes clinicians, public health professionals and social scientists from six SADC countries; it was created to identify context-specific, critical areas where research is needed to inform evidence-grounded policy and implementation. In January 2020, 38 AfroSurg members participated in a theory of change (ToC) workshop to agree on a vision: 'An African-led, regional network to enable evidence-based, context-specific, safe surgical care, which is accessible, timely, and affordable for all, capturing the spirit of Ubuntu[1]' and to identify necessary policy and service-delivery knowledge needs to achieve this vision. A unified ToC map was created, and a Delphi survey was conducted to rank the top five priority knowledge needs. In total, 45 knowledge needs were identified; the top five priority areas included (1) mapping of available surgical services, resources and providers; (2) quantifying the burden of surgical disease; (3) identifying the appropriate number of trainees; (4) identifying the type of information that should be collected to inform service planning; and (5) identifying effective strategies that encourage geographical retention of practitioners. Of the top five knowledge needs, four were policy-related, suggesting a dearth of much-needed information to develop regional, evidenced-based surgical policies. The findings from this workshop provide a roadmap to drive locally led research and create a collaborative network for implementing research and interventions. This process could inform discussions in other low-resource settings and enable more evidenced-based surgical policy and service delivery across the SADC countries and beyond.

Innovative financing to fund surgical systems and expand surgical care in low-income and middle-income countries.

Strong surgical systems are necessary to prevent premature death and avoidable disability from surgical conditions. The epidemiological transition, which has led to a rising burden of non-communicable diseases and injuries worldwide, will increase the demand for surgical assessment and care as a definitive healthcare intervention. Yet, 5 billion people lack access to timely, affordable and safe surgical and anaesthesia care, with the unmet demand affecting predominantly low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Rapid surgical care scale-up is required in LMICs to strengthen health system capabilities, but adequate financing for this expansion is lacking. This article explores the critical role of innovative financing in scaling up surgical care in LMICs. We locate surgical system financing by using a modified fiscal space analysis. Through an analysis of published studies and case studies on recent trends in the financing of global health systems, we provide a conceptual framework that could assist policy-makers in health systems to develop innovative financing strategies to mobilise additional investments for scale-up of surgical care in LMICs. This is the first time such an analysis has been applied to the funding of surgical care. Innovative financing in global surgery is an untapped potential funding source for expanding fiscal space for health systems and financing scale-up of surgical care in LMICs.

Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery: An Opportunity to Improve Surgical Care and Advance Sustainable Development Globally.

Global health has evolved to focus on reducing health inequity and obtaining the highest attainable standard of health for all people. To do this, a range of actors now pursue interventions and policy with an eye toward global targets that place strong emphasis on improving health systems. Within global health, global surgery has sought to delineate the burden of surgical disease and propose policy to improve access to surgery. Oral and maxillofacial surgery has been underrepresented in global health but has a vital role in reducing the global health inequity attributable to the impact of oral and craniofacial conditions.

Emergency and essential surgical healthcare services during COVID-19 in low- and middle-income countries: A perspective.

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in significant changes in health care systems worldwide, with low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) sustaining important repercussions. Specifically, alongside cancellation and postponements of non-essential surgical services, emergency and essential surgical care delivery may become affected due to the shift of human and material resources towards fighting the pandemic. For surgeries that do get carried through, new difficulties arise in protecting surgical personnel from contracting SARS-CoV-2. This scarcity in LMIC surgical ecosystems may result in higher morbidity and mortality, in addition to the COVID-19 toll. This paper aims to explore the potential consequences of COVID-19 on the emergency and essential surgical care in LMICs, to offer recommendations to mitigate damages and to reflect on preparedness for future crises. Reducing the devastating consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on LMIC emergency and essential surgical services can be achieved through empowering communities with accurate information and knowledge on prevention, optimizing surgical material resources, providing quality training of health care personnel to treat SARS-CoV-2, and ensuring adequate personal protection equipment for workers on the frontline. While LMIC health systems are under larger strain, the experience from previous outbreaks may aid in order to innovate and adapt to the current pandemic. Protecting LMIC surgical ecosystems will be a pivotal process in ensuring that previous health system strengthening efforts are preserved, comprehensive care for populations worldwide are ensured, and to allow for future developments beyond the pandemic.

Globalization of national surgical, obstetric and anesthesia plans: the critical link between health policy and action in global surgery.

Efforts from the developed world to improve surgical, anesthesia and obstetric care in low- and middle-income countries have evolved from a primarily volunteer mission trip model to a sustainable health system strengthening approach as private and public stakeholders recognize the enormous health toll and financial burden of surgical disease. The National Surgical, Obstetric and Anesthesia Plan (NSOAP) has been developed as a policy strategy for countries to address, in part, the health burden of diseases amenable to surgical care, but these plans have not developed in isolation. The NSOAP has become a phenomenon of globalization as a broad range of partners - individuals and institutions - help in both NSOAP formulation, implementation and financing. As the nexus between policy and action in the field of global surgery, the NSOAP reflects a special commitment by state actors to make progress on global goals such as Universal Health Coverage and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. This requires a continued global commitment involving genuine partnerships that embrace the collective strengths of both national and global actors to deliver sustained, safe and affordable high-quality surgical care for all poor, rural and marginalized people.

Correction to: Global surgery and the World Health Organization: indispensable partners to achieve triple billion goals.

The legend of the Figure currently reads: "A formula for advancing surgical system strengthening and World Health Assembly resolution 68.15 through the World Health Organization's thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW-13). This graphic depicts the three strategic shifts outlined in GPW-13 and ties them to specific avenues for surgical system strengthening to achieve overarching goals. GPW-13 = Thirteenth General Programme of Work; NSOAPs = National Surgical, Obstetric, and Anesthesia Plans; PHC = primary healthcare; SDG 3 = Sustainable Development Goal 3; UHC = universal health coverage; WHA 68.18 = World Health Assembly resolution 68.15. " The corrected Figure legend should read: A formula for advancing surgical system strengthening and World Health Assembly resolution 68.15 through the World Health Organization's thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW-13). This graphic depicts the three strategic shifts outlined in GPW-13 and ties them to specific avenues for surgical system strengthening to achieve overarching goals. GPW-13 = Thirteenth General Programme of Work; NSOAPs = National Surgical, Obstetric, and Anesthesia Plans; PHC = primary healthcare; SDG 3 = Sustainable Development Goal 3; UHC = universal health coverage; WHA 68.15 = World Health Assembly resolution 68.15.